The Bush administration has 'Lebanized' Iraq. It is ironic that a political structure that has worked so poorly for Lebanon is now the template for Iraq.
Some experts believe that a civil war in Iraq is already underway, even if it is not yet a full-blown conflict. . . If accounts from the ground are to be believed, there is already some ethnic cleansing going on in some neighbourhoods and some areas within Iraq. The reason is clear: Iraqis have looked for the constitution to be a national pact, and the general perception now is that it's not!
The most important parts of the 'approved' constitution -- or at least those to which the Sunnis are most strongly opposed -- were worked out between the Kurds and the major Shiite parties to the explicit exclusion of the Sunnis, despite U.S. efforts to the contrary. . .
. . .The Iraqi people (as it would likely be to other oppressed and war ridden peoples around the world) appear to see things in the black and white, desperate and frightening reality of death and degredation. The US is the obvious cause and target of their angst. Whether we leave now or later will change nothing.
Its true that perpetuating a century old arbitrary border flies in the face of our notions of self-determination, but trying to enforce some unwanted federation does just the same. The barely checked belligerent behavior of Iraqis from all groups tends to support this in spite of the desperate efforts of a American puppet government, of newly returned exiles of dubious backgrounds and political beliefs.
The best that can be hoped for in the present American model: An Iranized shia south; a no man's land sunni center; and an inevitably belligerent kurdish north (hopefully kept in check by an ever watchful and fearful Turkey).
Change the names of indigenous groups and outside instigators and influences-sounds like Lebanon, huh.
A federation becoming a reality in Iraq is a dubious one, at best.
All credible reportage has the country already in civil war, at whatever level you choose to put it. The central and south has come under the grip of a pervasive, dangerous, fascist religiosity on the street. The secular bathists, with their fascist tenets in common, have teamed up with them in outright defiance of a terribly weak, utterly corrupt govt. These are just facts, not hyperbole.
Unlike early after the 'end' of official war, westerners cannot even get about in Baghdad anymore, let alone the rest of the country without heavy guard or military. The infrastructure of the country, both public and private is worse than it has ever been by insurgent fiat! Iraq is an outright disaster area. . .
. . .Remember the lessons of history, particularly that of Britain who faced a similar circumstance in Iraq last century. Bottom line- occupation ended due to an uncontrollable and increasingly violent insurgency of the people of Iraq against it (not just outside infiltrators). The imposed govt collapsed with the vacuum filled eventually by an Arabic version of national socialism. Unfortunately, something similar will be Iraq's fate again. This time more likely religious fundamentalist govt than a secularist one.
Be skeptical of the present pro-occupation position of the dominant shia parties in the Iraq govt. Their longtime cultural identification and loyalties lie with Iran, intensified and ingrained in them by their experience under Saddam. More than suspicion is they are glad to have American largess continue to fill their Swiss bank accounts as long as it flows their way, and so for now are pliant to Bush administration wishes.
As for the Kurds. The sure bet is they are just waiting for the moment to close their border to a country and culture with which they have little in common. They will turn their attention north to Turkey to aid their kurdish brothers in their longtime insurgency for the creation of a greater Kurdistan. They are also glad for American aid in the meantime as it serves their purpose. The only outcome can be war or civil war with the Turks, depending on your point of view.
A federal republican state cannot be solution in Iraq. How does it really serve the self-perceived interests of the Iraqis. There is no experience with democracy as a solution to major political differences. As great as the differences between the three main Iraqi ethno/religous groups are, the old sure and tried middle eastern way of imposing one's will and gaining one's ends; at the point of a gun will prevail.
Blog On